FORECAST OF STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT
Background Information
taloustohtori.luke.fi/maatalouden-rakennekehitysennuste taloustohtori.luke.fi/sv/prognos-av-strukturutveckling taloustohtori.luke.fi/en/forecast-of-structural-development
The Forecast of Structural Development service of Luke's EconomyDoctor provides information on the development in the number of Finnish agricultural and horticultural holdings from 2000 onwards, together with forecasts for future years.
The forecasts are based on Luke's Extended Agricultural and Horticultural Structure Statistics.
The dataset also includes the smallest agricultural and horticultural enterprises with a Standard Output (SO) value of less than EUR 2,000.
Service activities such as harness racing, riding schools, and stable operations are not considered agricultural activities. However, holdings engaged in these activities are included in the dataset because they may also produce other agricultural or horticultural products and may keep other livestock. Horses are excluded when calculating the economic farm size and type of farming of holdings.
In the forecasting system, farm numbers for forecast years are estimated using a rolling regression analysis based on the farm numbers of previous years. Forecasts are calculated at the municipal level and, within each municipality, by support area and language group (Finnish-speaking and Swedish-speaking holdings). Within these groups, forecasts are further classified by type of farming and farm size class.
A description of the structural forecasting system is available at: https://www.pacioli.org/papers/163
For data protection reasons, however, farm numbers are not presented at the municipal level in the web service but rather using broader regional classifications.
The standard output provides forecasts of farm numbers by type of farming for the entire time series using different regional classifications. On the "Own Criteria" tab, users can generate reports for their chosen period.
The service is available in Finnish, Swedish, and English.
Producers of the EconomyDoctor Forecast of Structural Development Service:
Web Service Design
Luke Statistical Services / Arto Latukka
Data: Extended Agricultural and Horticultural Structure Statistics
Luke Statistical Services / Pia Outa-Pulkkinen, Anna-Kaisa Jaakkonen
Forecast Calculation System
Luke Statistical Services / Arto Latukka
Classification of Holdings by Type of Farming and Farm Size
Luke Statistical Services / Jukka Tauriainen
Standard Output (SO)
Luke Statistical Services / Lauri Juntti Luke / Sami Ovaska, Anu Koivisto
Internet User Interface
Luke Statistical Services / Jussi Iltanen, Gökçe Koç
Visual Design of the Service
Sofis Design Oy
Funding
Funded by the Farm Development Fund (Makera).
Project; Policy Measures for Agricultural Structural Development (POMARAKE), 2020-2023.
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