Forecasting system

The result and profitability forecasting system for agriculture and horticulture produces the enterprise-specific forecasts to the bookkeeping enterprises. It takes into account the changes  in the prices of inputs and outputs, changes in subsidies and changes in crop yields. The weighted result and profitability forecasts are calculated from enterprise-specific forecasts. The development of several revenue and cost items, family farm income, entrepreneurial profit and profitability ratio can be examined from forecast results.

Except for the changes in the crop yields, the forecasting system is static in regard to the production structure and technology of the farms and in regard to farm size. The changes in the yields are taken into consideration when calculating the revenue forecasts. The changes in the yields are based on the statistics of Luke.

The development of revenues is predicted with the help of the Indexes of Producer Prices of Agricultural Products produced by Statistics Finland so that the revenues of the products will be revised with the indexes. The development of the cost items is forecasted by using correspondingly the Index of Purchase Prices of the Means of Agricultural Production. 

The forecasts of the farm subsidies are calculated using the relative changes in the unit subsidies. In that case it will be supposed that the basis for the subsidy is preserved as the same.